Featured ArticleDid You Know?
Alt Talk
"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
- Warren Buffett
In this Edition
Direxion in Focus
The Direxion Indexed Managed Futures Strategy Fund
Web Event Replay: The "Next Generation" in Managed Futures Investing
QQQE: New Equal Weighted Index ETF by Direxion
Web Event Replay: Volatility, Strategies for Diversification and Risk Management
Endowments: High on Alternatives
A recent study* observed that University Endowments allocate significantly more to alternatives compared to retail investors and advisors.
They indicated that their allocations to alternative investments (as a dollar weighted average) exceeded 50% of their portfolio allocations. It was also observed that the greater the asset level of the endowment, the greater the allocation to alternatives and typically a greater investment return when compared to endowments with lower asset levels/allocations to alternatives
It should be noted, most endowments seek a conservative investment approach consistent with capital preservation, which is a testament to the use of alternative investments for risk mitigation.
Size |
Domestic Equity % |
Fixed |
International Equities % |
Short Term Securities/ Cash % |
Alternative Strategies % |
|
Over $1 B |
11 |
10 |
15 |
4 |
60 |
|
$51 M to $100 M |
31 |
21 |
18 |
6 |
24 |
|
$25 M to $50 M |
35 |
24 |
16 |
8 |
17 |
|
Under $25 M |
40 |
27 |
13 |
8 |
12 |
All Data is dollar-weighted unless otherwise specified.
Reversion to the Mean
$1 invested in long only commodities* in 1956 is worth approximately 64 cents today, adjusted for inflation.
Did You Know?

*Alternative Strategies are categorized in the NCSE as Follows: Private
Equity (LBOs, mezzanine, M&A funds, and international private
equity); Marketable Alternative Strategies (hedge funds, absolute
return, market neutral, long/short, 130/30, event driven and
derivative); Venture Capital; Private Equity Real Estate (non-campus);
Energy and Natural Resources (oil, gas, timber, commodities and managed
futures); and Distressed Debt**Commodities - Referrencing Reuters CRB Futures Index as a proxy. The index invests in Energy, Grains, Industrials, Meats, Softs, Precious, Metals
***
|
Index Description |
Index Name |
|
Currencies |
Barclays Currency Traders Index |
|
Fixed Income |
Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate |
|
Managed Futures |
Barclays CTA BTOP 50 Index |
|
Commodities |
Dow UBS Commodity Index |
|
Hedge Funds |
HFRI Fund Weighted Hedge Fund Index |
|
U.S. Equities |
S&P 500® Index |
Given the cyclical nature of commodities and the tendency for their prices to revert to the mean over time, a long only approach may not be the best strategy to gain access to commodities. Investors interested in commodity exposure may want to consider a strategy that takes both upward and downward trends into consideration and has the flexibility to adjust positions in individual commodities accordingly.
Really Riskier?
There is a common misconception is that alternative investments are riskier than traditional asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Though this may be true when comparing to long only commodities which exhibit marginally higher standard deviation than stocks, most other alternatives tend to have more stable risk metrics.
As you can see in the table below, Long/Short Currencies, Managed Futures and Hedge Funds reveal a lower standard deviation for the referenced 10 year period.
|
All data: 12/31/2001-12/31/2011 |
Annualized |
Annualized Standard |
Max Drawdown |
|
Traditional Investments |
|
||
|
U.S. Equities |
2.92% |
16.15% |
-50.95% |
|
Fixed Income |
5.78% |
3.69% |
-3.83% |
|
Alternative Investments |
|
||
|
Long Commodities |
6.63% |
18.66% |
-54.26% |
|
Long/Short Currencies |
3.06% |
4.54% |
-6.61% |
|
Managed Futures |
5.40% |
6.82% |
-7.74% |
|
Hedge Funds |
5.87% |
6.56% |
-21.42% |
Average Returns by Stage of the Business Cycle
The below table illustrates the returns of stocks, bonds and commodity futures through 7 full business cycles starting in 1959.
|
|
Stocks |
Bonds |
Commodity Futures |
|
Expansion |
13.29% |
6.74% |
11.84% |
|
early |
16.30% |
9.98% |
6.76% |
|
late |
10.40% |
3.63% |
16.71% |
|
Recession |
0.51% |
12.59% |
1.05% |
|
early |
-18.64% |
-3.88% |
3.74% |
|
late |
19.69% |
29.07% |
-1.63% |
As illustrated, stocks and commodity futures exhibited average annual returns which were similar in overall periods of economic expansion and contraction, however, during late stages of economic expansion and early stages of recession, commodity futures outperform with relative significance which reinforces their diversification value.
Information from Gary Gorton The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and National Bureau of Economic Research and K. Geert Rouwenhorst School of Management, Yale University.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Direxion funds carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about Direxion Funds. To obtain a prospectus, please visit www.direxionfunds.com or contact Direxion Funds at 800.851.0511. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. Investing in funds that invest in specific industries or geographic regions may be more volatile than investing in broadly diversified funds.
The principal risks of investing in the Direxion Indexed Managed Futures Strategy Fund are Active and Frequent Trading Risk, Adverse Market Conditions Risk, Agriculture Investment Risk, Commodity Linked Derivatives Risk, Counterparty Risk, Credit Risk, Currency Exchange Rate Risk, Currency Investment Risk, Debt Instrument Risk, Derivatives Risk, Emerging Markets Risk, Energy Investment Risk, Foreign Securities Risk, Futures Contracts Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Leverage Risk, Market Risk, Non-Diversification Risk, Other Investment Companies (including Exchange-Traded Funds) Risk, Precious Metals Investment Risk, Regulatory Risk, Sector Risk, Shorting Securities Risk, Subsidiary Investment Risk, Tax Risk, Tracking Error Risk, and Volatility Risk. Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. is a registered Portfolio Manager/Investment Fund Manager in Canada and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA/CPO) and National Futures Association (NFA) member in the US.
Date of First Use: March 30, 2012. Distributed by: Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC.